Hertfordshire Futures’ Business Intelligence Report provides an overview of the current state of the local job market, wage growth, and the investment climate in the county, highlighting both challenges and positive developments.  

The Hertfordshire economy has experienced significant shifts over the past year, reflecting broader national trends. 

Job Market Cooling and Rebalancing 

After a period of high demand and staffing shortages, the job market in Hertfordshire is gradually cooling and rebalancing. While job vacancies are still present, they are decreasing from their peak levels. The unemployment rate in Hertfordshire remains low compared to the rest of the UK. Despite an increase in unemployment in the first half of 2024, the rate stabilised in the latter half of the year. 

Job Vacancies and Unemployment 

In 2024, the job market faced significant challenges, leading to a notable decrease in job vacancies. By the end of 2024, the number of job vacancies in the UK fell for the 29th consecutive period.  

In all were 161,759 unique job postings In Hertfordshire last year compared to 221,644 in 2023: a reduction of 27%.  However, vacancy postings have been falling for each of the last 14 months in all ten of the county’s local authority districts. 

Alongside the fall in job postings, there was a slight rise in unemployment in the first half of the year. The percentage of people claiming benefits and looking for work rose from 2.6% in January 2024 to 3.1% in July, a rate that held up until November. Several factors contributed to this challenging year: 

• Economic Uncertainty: Companies were cautious about hiring due to economic instability and inflation concerns. 

• Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing supply chain issues affected industries’ ability to operate smoothly, leading to reduced hiring. 

• Shift in Business Priorities: Many companies re-evaluated their workforce strategies, focusing on cost-cutting and efficiency. 

Despite these challenges, there were positive signs of improving labour market resilience towards the end of the year. The employment rate in Hertfordshire continues to ride high at just under 80%. Overall, while the job market is rebalancing, hiring conditions remain challenging. 

Investment climate 

In Hertfordshire, the number of private equity deals in 2024 fell to 55 from 116, compared with the previous year. In this period, overall levels of investment fell from £196m to £146m. Despite the fall in investments by both value and volume, there was still strong evidence of investor appetite evidenced by a rise in the average value of investments per deal from £1.7m to £2.2m.   

Conclusion 

Hertfordshire’s economy is showing a degree of resilience despite challenges in the job and investment markets. The county continues to attract high-paying employment, and while job vacancies have decreased, the unemployment rate remains low. The increase in median earnings and the higher average value of private equity investments, highlight Hertfordshire’s economic strength and potential for future growth. As the job market rebalances, Hertfordshire remains a robust and attractive region for both employment and investment. 

Read January’s full report by Paul Witcombe, Hertfordshire Futures Sector Lead